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Years ago, Maryann Keller (the leading auto analyst) predicted that there would come a time when consolidation would result in only 5 or 6 surviving players in the auto industry.
Her timing was a bit off, but I think we are now in the early stages of an accelerating consolidation.
I see the R/N gambit as a half-measure doomed to eventually failing fully as it's really just a shortgun wedding of two marginalized players run by a one-trick pony of a manager.
My guess is that the Big 3 are nearing the point where they will confront their demons and address the legacy costs that wipe out any real enterprise value. Once that is done--perhaps as soon as this coming summer--I think all of them will be in play as either buyers or sellers.
To give the Germans a bit of credit, they did have a great set of alliances in place with Mitsu and Hyundai. The Mitsu deal ended when that company imploded, but it's never been clear to me why the Korean deal failed. It made (and makes) a ton of sense on numerous levels.
So, whither CG? Heck if I know. The US market has far too much capacity, and it's not inconceivable that CG just becomes the first major player to fold.
More likely, the Wall Street guys will drum up a deal with an Asian firm; remember, the Asians are drowning in capital and have a cultural tendency to be almost reckless in their aggression.
In any event, there won't be a dull moment in the business for years to come.